Saturday, November 1, 2008
Obama Warns He May Cease To Exist Unless America Believes In Him
"My fellow Americans, I am currently very strong and very, very real," Sen. Obama told a cheering crowd of 12,000 at the Indiana State Fairgrounds. "Even here in Hoosier country, a traditional Republican stronghold, your faith has kept me from growing faint, becoming transparent, and slowly fading from view."
"But please, don't stop now," Obama added. "Unless you continue to believe in me, I'll completely disappear. You have to keep me in your thoughts at all times!"
Deputy campaign manager Steve Hilde- brand, who has been tasked with making sure volunteers are chanting Obama's name with their hands clasped and their eyes shut tight, said that the candidate has nearly faded out at several points during the long campaign. Early in the primaries, when Hillary Clinton was up in the polls, Obama's typically solid composition began to waver and his voice became a distant echo. Currently the Democratic nominee is a blurred and vague outline in the state of West Virginia, where he trails McCain by almost 12 points. In Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia, Obama is already a waning dream to some people, while in Texas, he is nothing more than a gentle wind, rustling through the trees—a ghostly visitor soon departed.
"During these last few days, I call on all Americans to keep thinking happy thoughts," Obama said. "Otherwise our dream of turning this country around will vanish, as I vanish, leaving nothing behind but a wisp of my memory and a few faint strains of my voice, forever whispering, 'Yes, we can…. Yes, we can…. Yes, we can.'"
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More News Briefs
Does Palin's maverick label still stick?
A loyal Democrat, Kenny Powers never shared Sarah Palin's conservative politics. But the United Way organizer confesses a fondness for the governor who paired a folksy charm with scorn for Alaska's Republican old guard.
"She was such a breath of fresh air," he says.
That was then. Nearing the end of a bruising campaign, the Republican vice presidential candidate has seen her appeal to her party's conservative base feed speculation about a future national campaign at the same time increasing numbers of others recoil from her.
"It makes me wonder whether I knew her."
Palin introduced herself to a nation as a conventional homemaker eager to shatter convention — the hockey mom roughing up the power brokers, a reformer with a bipartisan streak. But that maverick image — along with her poll numbers — has been scuffed, if not reshaped.
The designer eyeglasses are the same, but it's clear many voters outside the Republican base are looking at her through a changed lens. A woman who ascended to power in Alaska by challenging the Republican establishment now represents it on the national ticket. In her coming-out convention speech, Palin said, "I took on the old politics as usual," but in two months on the national political stage she has encountered questions about expenses and trips charged to taxpayers, as well as her account of actions she took as governor.
Duke University political scientist David Rohde says Palin has alienated independents at the very time the Republican ticket needs to attract votes from the political center.
"They first saw her as refreshing," Rohde said, referring to unaffiliated voters, a crucial swing group. Now, "more see her as a typical politician."
Among the revelations, Palin charged the state more than $21,000 for her daughters' commercial flights, including events where they weren't invited, and later ordered their expense forms amended to specify official state business. She billed the state for expenses, usually collected for travel, while she was at home, and her administration used private e-mail accounts to conduct state business.
Her scalding attacks on Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama filled a traditional vice presidential nominee's role, but they also eroded her bipartisan credentials. In Alaska, her administration, once known for openness, developed a reputation for insularity. A legislative probe found she abused her power as governor.
She claimed she told Congress to cancel the "bridge to nowhere," but it turned out that she had supported it until it became an embarrassment. Disclosures that the Republican Party spent $150,000 for designer clothes, hairstyling and accessories and $36,000 to have celebrity makeup artist Amy Strozzi travel with her undermined Palin's homespun image and her professed preference for thrift shops.
And questions about her qualifications, ratcheted up by her often cringe-worthy answers during television interviews, haunted her candidacyVice presidential candidates rarely affect the presidential vote, but recent polling suggests Palin could be a drag on John McCain's chances.
She attracts raucous, standing-room only crowds on the stump, but national polls in recent days indicate her popularity is shaky.
AP-Yahoo News polling found Palin's unfavorable rating jumped as voters learned more about her. In a survey conducted soon after McCain picked her, 42 percent of likely voters rated her favorably, 25 percent unfavorably and 33 percent didn't know enough to say. In a survey completed this week, the poll showed 43 percent of likely voters viewed her favorably and an equal 43 percent unfavorably, with 13 percent not knowing enough to say.
Independent likely voters started out a bit more sour and have grown increasingly negative — 35 percent gave her an unfavorable rating in early September, 47 percent in late October.
In a New York Times-CBS News poll completed this week, 59 percent of registered voters said Palin was not prepared to be vice president, up nine percentage points since the beginning of October. Almost a third of those polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major influence on their vote for president, and those voters broadly favored Obama.
Some unflattering impressions of Palin might be the fault of McCain's own campaign. Sen. John Ensign, R-Nev., chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, on Thursday criticized the way the governor was introduced to voters. In her first weeks on the national stage, she became viewed as "just an empty suit" because she spent too much time repeating the same speech, Ensign told the Las Vegas television news program NewsONE.
Pollster Ivan Moore, who tracks Alaska politics, said Palin will remain popular among Republicans, but Democrats and independents "don't like the pitbull-with-lipstick persona at all."
In Alaska "she really governed in a fairly populist way, which led to her high approval ratings," Moore said. As a vice-presidential candidate "she completely ruined the kind of bipartisanship she built up."
Her Alaska supporters blame the media for biased coverage or dismiss questions about expenses or trips as distractions.
Sharon Balsky, 70, an Anchorage retiree, has no problems with Palin's maverick credentials. The national media "doesn't go after Obama and (Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe) Biden the way they go after Palin," she said.
Palin appears to be asserting some independence from the McCain campaign. She spoke out against the campaign's decision to abandon Michigan and lamented its use of robocalls; she has defied her handlers in order to engage reporters more frequently. These moves generated reports some McCain operatives believe she is trying to position herself for a future campaign.
"She is a maverick. She took on the establishment up here," said Carol Milkman, 52, a hospital worker from Eagle River who volunteered to help Palin's campaign for governor. "I think she would make a good candidate for president."
'I Haven't Always Just Toed the Line'
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Ask Sarah Palin what she has found most surprising about her campaign experience and she replies, with more than a touch of humility, "the enthusiasm." She's got a point.
Wending my way through the traffic and crowds around the Palin event in this small river city on Thursday morning, I began to wonder if the whole state hadn't shown up. Walking the cold half-hour from the nearest parking space, I passed mobs of disappointed voters who had already been turned away for lack of space. Inside the city's Show Me Center, thousands of roaring, stomping, sign-waving Palin fans were practically hanging from the rafters. It felt like, well . . . an Obama rally.
And there you have the paradox of Sarah Palin. The press has brutalized the Alaska governor, playing gotcha with her record, digging through her family life. The liberal intelligentsia has declared her unfit for office, a rube, a right-wing maniac. The conservative intelligentsia has accused her of being a lightweight, of "anti-intellectualism." Polls suggest a significant number of voters believe she is not up for the job.
Yet her supporters idolize her -- all the more because of the criticism. Mrs. Palin has, for millions of Americans, become a symbol of a reformist average Jane, a working mom, ready to take on the Washington they detest. Talking to Missourians before the event, I heard little mention of flashpoint issues like her religious views, or her experience. I was instead repeatedly, and vociferously, informed that a Vice President Palin would "fix that place" and "shape up the GOP." I also heard a lot about how she would accomplish all this because she was a "real" person.
The governor is one of those politicians with the gift of connecting with her audience, a trait that surely has helped with her quick political rise. "I'm so glad you're here!" she said as I walked in to the holding room, with such warmth I wondered if she might actually mean it. As in her staged events, she comes across in person as confident.
The tasks of "fixing" Washington and "shaping up" the GOP are no small things, whether from inside the West Wing, or depending on Tuesday, from some future role as a party leader. And so, after a firm handshake and an introduction to First Dude Todd, I ask the governor if we could forgo the stump speech and talk about her contribution to this ticket, and the future of the party. Why, exactly, are Republicans as a whole struggling so badly? Are the liberal pundits right that modern conservatism has run its course?
"The planks in the Republican platform are good, they are strong. Economically speaking, Republicans support a uniquely American system that rewards hard work and empowers the entrepreneurial spirit that made this country the greatest country on earth. And on the national security front . . . it is about strength through power, it is about diplomacy across this world, allowing America to lead us toward a more peaceful world. On those planks -- economic and national security -- the Republican Party has the right agenda."
The problem, she explains, is a failure to deliver. "We must prove to the American people that we will live out the ideals and the values articulated in that platform." She says that "in too many cases" the GOP has let voters down, in particular on spending and with the abuse of earmarking. She argues the most effective way to revamp the party is from the top, by putting her ticket in the Oval Office, where it will enforce discipline. "We have a track record that proves we can reform government. And ultimately, that will reform the Republican Party."
I probe a little bit more on this word "reform" -- a favorite of Gov. Palin's, though it isn't always clear what she means. What exactly will she reform? "It's reform of the abuse of the earmark process. There's nothing wrong with governors and mayors and members asking for a share of the federal budget, in order to help a community, but it is the abuse of that process that has got to be reformed. It's reform of federal government spending; they've run up a $10 trillion debt that we're expected to hand off to our children. . . . It's about, ultimately, putting government back on the side of the people. Not to make Americans believe that they have to work for government, but that their government needs to be working for them. . . . This is their government. It's of the people, by the people, for the people."
She also explains that what distinguishes a new generation of reformers in the party -- people like her, or Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal -- is a willingness to learn from Republican failures or successes of the past, and apply them to current concerns, say health care. "We have the luxury of looking back with 20-20 hindsight." She mentions Ronald Reagan, his ability "to win the Cold War without firing a shot" and his focus on pro-growth policies, as examples of those successes. But she also notes that today's global economy and global threats have combined to demand more from leaders.
"It used to be you could choose the president based on one or two things, on strength on national security, or on a view on the economy. Today, everything is interwoven. With globalization and with how quickly the world has changed, we need a president with the experience and leadership capability and the good judgment to handle both." She flags energy, saying that today it is both an imperative for domestic economic prosperity as well as a question of national security.
The vice-presidential nominee took heat recently for talking about the values of "real America" -- a comment some took as an implication that red-state America is more patriotic than other parts of the country. I ask her if the GOP doesn't in fact have a perception problem, that it is no longer viewed as a big tent? What does it need to do to reach out and once again become competitive in places like New Jersey or Connecticut, or the suburbs?
Mrs. Palin, again, suggests that implementing reform is the best way for the party to connect with the broader electorate. This was her approach in Alaska, where she at one point boasted 90% approval ratings. "My concentration is on bettering our country. I've never been known as an obsessive partisan. In fact, I've taken on my own party. I've run against members of my own party in order to reform at a local level and a state level. And on a national level I'd do the same thing and so will John McCain. And McCain, he's got the scars to prove that independent streak, that comes from making the right decisions for the people he was serving, putting country first. So my concentration is on how do we make this country as a whole better, stronger, safer."
The governor herself has also been attempting to retool the GOP's message to broaden the party's appeal with key voting groups. In a largely unnoticed policy speech in Nevada last week, Mrs. Palin pitched to women. Flanked by feminists -- including Democrats and members of the National Organization for Women -- the governor argued that the GOP's free-market policies were particularly important to women. Women need changes in rigid 40-hour-a-week labor laws to obtain more flexible work schedules; women own millions of small businesses that would be hurt by tax hikes; women need entitlement reform to provide security for their long retirement years.
"Every woman that I know works so hard, because they have a couple of extra hurdles, obviously, that they have to jump over in order to succeed. . . . Of course we want and deserve equal pay for equal work. But we also want to be able to afford good health care for our families. John McCain's plan for the $5,000 tax credit will allow us to make our own decisions, to be able to afford health care, to erase these state lines that prohibit a competitive environment to purchase a good health-care package. . . . That's an issue that is important to women."
All of this, says Mrs. Palin, undermines suggestions by conservative critics that she represents an us-versus-them streak in the party. She bluntly suggests they are missing the point. "I think those who would criticize what I believe I represent -- and that is, everyday, hardworking American families who desire and deserve reform of government -- I think they are out of touch with what the rest of the nation is talking about today. It's a reflection of some elitism that assumes that the best and the brightest of this country are all assembled in Washington, D.C., and I beg to differ. You can walk out in the rally that we are going to attend in a minute, and you talk to anyone there, and I believe you will hear the same thing. Enough of that arrogance. Enough of that assumption that unless you are a part of that Washington elite that you aren't worthy of serving this great country."
She is equally blunt in her retort to those who say she's not up to the job. "I'll tell you, some within the party who have criticized me -- or John McCain's pick of me -- I think some of this underlying criticism is again coming from the hierarchy. It is because I haven't always just toed the line in the party. I'm not wired to do that. I want reform of our party, I want to be able to prove that our party is worthy of leading this country. And I'm not going to just go along to get along. I've never been able to do that. It bodes well for someone's character, I believe, and is a strength."
I ask if she's already discussed with Mr. McCain what her portfolio would be as vice president, and she enthusiastically ticks off her responsibilities: "Energy independence -- and that is just key to our national security and our economic prosperity. Reform of government -- put us back on the sides of the people. And helping families who have children with special needs -- ultimately, allowing every family to know that they have a friend and advocate in the White House, but specifically families who have worked so hard to make our nation a more welcoming place for children with special needs."
Related
Main Street: Palin Shows How to Transcend the Culture Wars
A society should be judged by how it treats its weakest members.
By William McGurn
Mrs. Palin doesn't mention her youngest child here, who was born earlier this year with Down syndrome -- but she doesn't need to. It's clear this is a subject on which she feels passionate. "They are special. We will elevate this whole issue, letting families know that children with autism, Down syndrome, with physical disabilities, these are special citizens of the United States of the America and they will be made to feel that way, not excluded, but included and provided equal opportunity."
As we wrap up I thank the governor and she asks a few questions about me. Then I am whisked out to the rally. Within a few minutes, the speakers start to blare Dolly Parton's "9 to 5," and Mrs. Palin steps out on to the stage. Listening to the crowd go bonkers, it's hard not to think that -- whatever happens Tuesday -- Mrs. Palin may yet have a long political future.
Ms. Strassel writes the Journal's Potomac Watch column.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Poll: Barack Obama Could Lose Six Percentage Points on Election Day for Being Black

That disturbing calculation was found in a groundbreaking new Associated Press-Yahoo News poll conducted with Stanford University which probes the effect of the Democratic presidential candidate's race on his historic campaign for the White House."There's a penalty for prejudice, and it's not trivial," Stanford University political scientist Paul Sniderman told the AP.
In a close contest, racism "might be enough to tip the election," Sniderman said.
Still, the Illinois senator seems to be making some headway even with white Americans who don't have much good to say about African-Americans.
Among the white Democrats who think blacks are lazy, or violent, or boastful, two-thirds said they will vote for Obama over Sen. John McCain, a white Republican.
The poll of 2,227 adults was conducted Aug. 27-Sept. 5, and was designed to probe people's racial attitudes and how those attitudes affect voting.
It shows that when it comes to race, there has been some progress in America: Most white people have positive things to say about black people.
Still, pollsters found that a substantial portion of white Americans have very little contact with African-Americans - and many still harbor negative feelings toward them.
Whites also have a rosier view of race relations than blacks. When asked "how much discrimination against blacks" exists, 10% of whites said "a lot" while 57% of blacks said "a lot."
Asked how much of the nation's racial tension is created by blacks, more than a third of whites said "most" or "all."
Meanhile, nearly three-fouths of the blacks polled said while people have too much influence in U.S. politics.
Also, the perception that voters in their 20s and 30s might go for Obama because they're less racially biased than their parents might be wrong.
The survey found no meaningful differences in the way younger and older whites viewed black people. But older whites were more likely to say when they really think of blacks than the younger generations.
Not surprisingly, racial prejudice tends to be lowest among college-educated whites living outside the South, the pollsters found.
